Bitcoin still lacks this on-chain signal for BTC bull market – David Puell
Bitcoin (BTC) needs just one more key signal in the chain for a classic bull market to begin, says analyst David Puell.
In a chirping on December 17, the Puell Multiple creator claimed that the stage is almost set for the end of the BTC price bearer market.
Puell: Bitcoin Network Activity ‘Stunning’
Despite many calling for new BTC/USD lows of $12,000 or less this cycle, not everyone is entirely bearish on the outlook for Bitcoin.
For Puell, two essential on-chain phenomena necessary for BTC price recovery have already been demonstrated.
Long-term holders (LTHs) are resisting the urge to sell despite Bitcoin down over 70% from its recent all-time high.
At the same time, short-term “speculators” feel acute pain from recent price action. As Cointelegraph reported, these “tourists” are probably already mostly gone from the market.
All that is missing, Puell believes, is an increase in network activity from all participants.
“On-chain, three factors are necessary for a bull: 1. Holding behavior from long-term investors. 2. Painful losses from short-term speculators. 3. Network activity across the board,” he summarized.
“In person watching 1 and 2. 3 is still underwhelming.”
He added that “favorable” macro conditions would help the turnaround, as well as crypto becoming more resistant to “contagion” in the form of “exogenous and endogenous ‘swans.'”
BTC/USD was trading at around $16,700 at the time of writing, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed.
A Bitcoin halving cycle like everyone else?
That perspective chimes with others calling for calm over current BTC price performance.
Related: Bitcoin Targets $16.7K on Fears BNB Could ‘Drag the Entire Crypto Market Down’
Among them is the popular analysis account Dilution-proof, which on the day drew attention to the fact that BTC/USD was simply copying previous bear market behavior.
Evidence came in the form of Bitcoin’s MVRV-z-score – an expression of market value to realized cap in standard deviation. Dilutive initially called the metric “Market-Value-to-Realized-Value Temperature (MVRVT).”
For now, accompanying charts showed signs of a classic bear market bottom formation, dilution proof states that Bitcoin “just does what it does on this date after the halving, literally every cycle.”
Cointelegraph previously included MVRV-z in a list of “striking similarities” between 2022 and previous price cycles.
The views, thoughts and opinions expressed herein are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
