Is the Next Bitcoin Bull Run Linked to the US Presidential Election? Here’s what history tells us

by James · May 9, 2023

San Diego, California, USA – January 7, 2015: A miniature replica of the famous Charging Bull, by artist Arturo Dimodica, stands in Bowling Green Park in New York City’s financial district atop a New York Times newspaper stock list.

Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s first and largest cryptocurrency, has been associated with several bull runs over the years. One of the most notable uptrends occurred in 2012, and financial analyst and cryptocurrency expert Aditya Siddhartha has connected that of the presidential election in the United States (US).

Why is the US presidential election important for Bitcoin?

According to Siddhartha, the 2012 Bull Run of Bitcoin was preceded by a significant drop in BTC’s price, with a 52% decline observed in the market. However, after the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) Bullish Crossover and all major Exponential Moving Average (EMA) Bullish Crossovers, the market started to gain momentum and the bull run began.

2012 MACD and EMA bullish cross. Source: Siddhartha on Twitter.

As for BTC’s bull market in 2012, the MACD and EMA indicators gave positive signals, leading to increased investor confidence and an increase in demand for Bitcoin. This resulted in a bull run after the presidential election, with Bitcoin’s price increasing by 11800%.

Similarly, Siddhartha observed that in 2016, BTC’s price experienced a 41% drop in the run-up to the presidential election. After the MACD Bullish Crossover and all major EMA Bullish Crossovers, the market started to gain momentum and the uptrend started.

Following the presidential election, Bitcoin’s price experienced a post-election bull run, with a staggering 2,800% price increase. This price rise was fueled by increased demand from investors and a growing awareness of Bitcoin’s potential as a store of value and digital asset.

In 2020, Bitcoin saw a significant drop of 22% before the presidential election. This drop was largely due to the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the election and the potential impact it could have on the economy and stock market.

However, according to Siddhartha, after the presidential election, Bitcoin’s price experienced a post-election bull trend, with its price increasing by 410%.

Furthermore, Siddhartha has suggested that the price of Bitcoin could see a significant pump to $40,000 before the pre-presidential election in 2024. However, the analyst also expects a drop of 25%-30% in the run-up to the election, similar to previous years.

As in previous bull runs, Siddhartha predicts that the MACD Bullish Crossover and all major EMA Bullish Crossovers will provide positive signals, leading to increased investor confidence and demand for Bitcoin. After the presidential election, Siddhartha expects a post-election Bull Run, with the price of Bitcoin potentially increasing by 450%, resulting in a price range of $180,000-$200,000.

At the time of writing, BTC’s price has been on a downward trend since Saturday. It has lost its previously established range between $28,500 and $29,600 and has once again failed to break the key level of $30,000.

BTC’s price drops 4% in 24 hours

At the time of writing, BTC’s price has fallen since Saturday, and is currently trading at $27.7000. It has lost its previously established range between $28,500 and $29,600 and has once again failed to break the key level of $30,000.

This level is important as it acts as a psychological barrier for investors and traders. Currently, BTC is reporting a loss of 4% in the last 24 hours, but will Bitcoin be able to stop the current trend and attempt another run to surpass the $30,000 level?

According until CryptoCon, Bitcoin has followed the Elliott Wave Theory quite well and even used it to determine the December 2022 bottom at $16,500.

Elliot Wave theory applied to BTC’s future price action. Source: CryptoCon on Twitter.

CryptoCon explains that even wave 3 cannot be over by definition, as it will make it shorter than wave 1. This means that there is still room for Bitcoin to experience significant growth in the future, despite any short-term corrections.