Bitcoin Bear Market in Pace with the Worst
Bitcoin has crashed from an all-time high of around $69,000, losing over 70% of its value since November 2021. New data shows that BTC’s price may have entered one of its worst bear markets since its inception, as the cryptocurrency loses critical levels and continues to trade in the red on high timeframes.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $21,600 and has lost 10% in the last 7 days. The entire sector is experiencing downward price action and is moving at a make-it-or-break-it level.
Data from the Arcane Research firm claims that Bitcoin’s price can track its performance from 2017 to 2018. At that time, the price of Bitcoin rose from below $3,000 to the previous record high of $2,000.
The cryptocurrency then lost over 80% of its value by crashing back to breakout levels. This bear market lasted for years as the price of BTC consolidated below its previous record high before re-entering price discovery mode in late 2020.
Arcane Research claims that the current bearish price action has lasted 286 days with BTC’s price down 70% from its all-time high. In 2017 and 2014, BTC went down for 12 to 13 months before forming a convincing bottom.
During this period, the cryptocurrency lost over 84% of its value, suggesting further room for BTC to crash into the 2020 levels of around $10,000. Arcane Research said:
If history is to repeat itself, a bottom can be expected to form towards the end of the year. Yet the market is a different beast this time. Last year’s double peak in April and November was unlike anything we’ve seen before in bitcoin, as was the push down during the previous ATH experienced during the massive liquidation of 3AC (Three Arrows Capital) in June.
These factors have contributed to Bitcoin experiencing relentless selling pressure in a macroeconomic environment unfavorable to risk assets.
Will Bitcoin See Final Push Down?
If the price of Bitcoin continues to track the 2018 bear market, market participants may want to prepare for a final push into 2020 levels. In the coming days, the crypto market will most likely see an increase in volatility and sudden movements as Ethereum deploys “The Merge”.
The event that will complete the transition from Proof-of-Work (PoW) to Proof-of-Stake (PoS), “The Merge” has created a lot of hype among market participants. Some consider it a bullish catalyst, while others believe that ETH’s price may face short-term obstacles that push the sector down.
After the merger, digital assets may experience short-term volatility, but if the price of the largest crypto compresses, it could further confirm a 2018-like bear market. Arcane Research noted:
The bear market of 2018 saw compressed volatility for a longer duration with a 140-day leg with prices ranging from $6-$7k before finally climaxing down towards $3k, resulting in a flat market for 120 days. Similar tendencies are evident today (…).
