Popular analyst predicts that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) may fall below $15,000
Bitcoin (BTC) price fell nearly 8% in the last 24 hours as the US dollar index continues to move above 110, leaving crypto and equity markets weak ahead of the Fed’s FOMC meeting on 20-21. September. Popular cryptanalyst Rekt Capital predicts The BTC price could fall below $13,900, and to $11,500 in an extreme scenario.
Historical data indicates that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) may fall further
In the monthly time frame, the Bitcoin price is currently struggling to surpass the $20,000 level, showing weakness. The $20,000-$23,350 range will mostly decide bears and bulls here. The price movements in July and August indicate the difference in buy-side pressure, with $20,000 as support.
However, the price action in September has been so weak and suggests that $20,000 is now turning into a resistance level. If the month ends with Bitcoin (BTC) price below the $20,000 level, the next support levels are $17,165 and $13,900.
Historically, Bitcoin (BTC) price bottoms at or below the 200-weekly moving average (WMA) after a death cross. The retracements after the Death Cross have been in the range of -42% to -73%.
Therefore, considering the historical post-Death Cross retracements and support levels, the Bitcoin price will bottom at around $13,900. In the extreme scenario, the BTC price will bottom at $11,500.
Since the BTC price is already below the 200-WMA and psychological level of $20,000, the downside seems most likely. However, there is a huge difference in market capitalization, liquidity, and institutional and retail adoption of Bitcoin now compared to earlier times.
Bitcoin bottomed 547 days before the Bitcoin Halving in 2015 and 517 days before the Bitcoin halving in 2018. Therefore, if Bitcoin bottoms 517-547 days before the upcoming halving in April 2024, then the bottom will occur in Q4 of this year.
Macros that affect BTC price
Despite an increasing number of new daily addresses, the Bitcoin price continues to dip below $20,000.
The Bitcoin (BTC) price will mostly depend on the September 21 Fed rate hike. Wall Street experts such as Goldman Sachs are predicting a rate hike of 75 bps in September and 50 bps in November and December. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 75 bps rate hike is 80%.
Currently, BTC price is trading above the $19,000 level after recovering almost 4% from the 24-hour low of $18,390. If the US dollar index remains near 110, the BTC price will be under pressure.
The content presented may include the author’s personal opinion and is subject to market conditions. Do market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or publication has no responsibility for your personal financial loss.
