Cryptocurrency can be tempting, but be careful not to turn it into a career
Suppose you and I are standing high atop a canyon—say, 250 feet above the rapids raging below—and there is a new bridge spanning the canyon, made of wooden slats and thick rope. The bridge, wet and slick from a tropical storm, sways in a brisk wind. There are low, gray clouds.
Completed yesterday, no one has yet crossed this bridge. You ask who posted it. I do not know. You ask if there is any hiking equipment around or emergency facilities nearby? Doubt it.
You ask about the people on the other side. Friendly or hostile? Both, probably; not easily separated. Predator? I’m no wildlife expert, but I bet it is. A set of governing laws and regulations? Maybe, but doubtful at best. Reliable food supply? Depends on what you call reliable. Shelter? What?!?!?
You finally ask, what if I don’t like it there and want to go back? Well, the last bridge came down in a rainstorm. Took a year to replace. Good luck in the meantime.
Q: Would you cross that bridge?
Fortunately, this is only allegorical. What is real, however, is that a similar set of circumstances can play out if you get into cryptocurrency as a career. [Disclaimer: I’m not a financial advisor, making no pretense, implied or specific, regarding investing in crypto. I’m talking solely as a career coach, job market observer, and columnist.]
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It should come as no surprise that I field inquiries from people of all ages and stages of their careers about crypto careers. My allegorical tale gives the answer: Don’t do it! Not now.
Clearly, crypto is here and it should not be taken lightly. As of this writing, its global valuation is around $2 trillion. Global GDP is $93.8 trillion (Source: IMF), so that puts crypto at 2.1% of the world economy and would rank it 10th.th largest GDP on earth. And on a day of favorable trading tops, that position would jump to eighth. Not insignificant.
Also, we know that a lot of money has been made from crypto. The problem is that a lot of money has also been lost. But I’m here to talk about jobs.
When the crypto leader, Bitcoin, loses 60% of its value literally overnight, which it did earlier this year, what do you think happened to many jobs? No one knows that number because it was not monitored as carefully and methodically as the BLS looks at the US labor market.
But from another source – layoffs.fyi, which tracks tech layoffs – we know this: through August, 39 crypto employers laid off 4,247 people, including 1,100 at Coinbase, one of the big fish in this pond. Even at mature, well-established companies, tremors cause layoffs; we saw it in 2009 and again in 2020. How well geared do you think the startups are?
Far greater than numbers, however, are the basic rules of engagement that are casually ignored by the crypto world by referring to what is considered wrong as benefits. Such as:
- Crypto loves decentralization, touting it as democratic. But it appears more anarchic than egalitarian. Imagine our global system running that way.
- Crypto claims transparency, but it’s easy to transact in your own shadow.
- Crypto lovers see flexibility. Or is there an opportunity to manipulate vulnerable small players?
- Three sets of bad actors loom. First: governments with nefarious intentions and vast resources. Imagine how one of them could look at that paltry $2 trillion and crush it or devalue it in a day. What about your job? Second: ultra-rich business people who could play with the market – such as Elon Musk with Twitter. What followed were layoffs of a third of the company’s acquisitions team. Third: giant financial institutions, not under normal circumstances when they are the bedrock of the global economy, but when they decide to flex their terrifying muscles whenever they want.
The novelty of it all makes a crypto career risky, and I would be irresponsible as an advisor to say otherwise. Yes, I know “fortune favors the brave” but it’s way too early in this game. Brave is one thing; foolhardy is another. Consider the bell-shaped curve of innovation adoption. The first 2.5% to come up with something are called innovators; the next 13.5% are early adopters; then 68% is evenly distributed early and late majority; 16% are latecomers. We’re not even at an early stage.
The sooner you jump in, the greater the risk and, dreamily, the reward.
But oh, that risk — for now.
Eli Amdur has provided individualized career and executive coaching, as well as advice on company leadership since 1997. For 15 years he taught management courses at FDU. He has been a regular writer for this and other publications since 2003. You can reach him at [email protected] or 201-357-5844.
