“They’re Printing Trillions” – Crypto Now Poised for $20 Trillion “Black Swan” After Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB, XRP, Cardano, Dogecoin, Polygon and Solana Price Boom
05/1 update below. This post was originally published on April 29
BitcoinBTC, ethereum and other major cryptocurrencies have soared higher so far this year (despite a stark warning that China, Joe Biden and the Federal Reserve could “destroy all the value of bitcoin”).
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Bitcoin price has doubled from its lows in late 2022 to around $30,000 per bitcoin, while ethereum and other top ten cryptocurrencies BNBBNB, XRPXRP, cardano, dogecoin, polygon and solana have added a combined $200 billion to the crypto market – some which gives hope that “crypto winter” may finally be over.
Now tech investor Balaji Srinivasan has explained the reasoning behind his $1 million bitcoin price bet, telling a bitcoin and crypto conference that he’s “burning a million to tell you they’re printing trillions.”
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Srinivasan, an early bitcoin investor and former chief technology officer at crypto exchange Coinbase, made headlines in March when he predicted that the US dollar would enter a hyperinflationary death spiral and that the price of bitcoin would rise to $1 million by June 16 – an increase of over 3000% from today’s level which would give bitcoin a market value of around 20 trillion dollars.
However, he has now hit back but remains highly skeptical of the US financial system due to the proliferation of government money printing to prop up fragile banks, calling his efforts a “signal” to “raise awareness of the fiat crisis.”
05/1 update: Srinivasan has denied that he is “backtracking” on this bitcoin bet, posts to Twitter: “I said 10% chance of fiat crisis happening in months, 70% chance in years, 19% chance in decades, 1% in centuries. But 10% is very high, and worth drawing attention to. Others also believe the probability of government default is at an all time high.”
The US government is now approaching a debt ceiling, with the deadline to quickly raise the $31.4 trillion limit approaching and creates concern for investors.
Srinivasan also said he would update his bet “soon,” adding: “The markets are also putting the probability of a US sovereign default at an all-time high. And that’s just the debt-ceiling-driven explicit default. Doesn’t include all avenues to cash in debt.”
“I don’t know how many months – years – we have,” Balaji said below Coindeskits consensus conference this week. “If you think like a trader, you think too early is the same as being wrong. If you think like a prepper, hell is the truth seen too late.”
“Just to quantify it, I think we have a 10% chance of a very serious problem in months, 70% in years, 19% in decades, and 1% it takes a century or so,” Balaji said, referring to a so-called “black swan”-style arrangement. “Could it be 900 days or even 90 months? It’s possible, I’m not 100% likely. I could be wrong, but I’ll burn a million to tell you they’re printing trillions.”
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This week, the banking crisis that saw the demise of Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse and crypto-friendly banks Signature and Silvergate earlier this year has hit San Francisco-based First Republic.
Government officials and agencies are in talks to save First Republic after it suffered $100 billion in outflows and its share price has crashed 98% this year while interest rates — which have shot at a historic pace in the past 12 months — have weighed heavily on its value of the bank’s mortgage book and other assets.
“Trust the Fed, end up dead,” Balaji added. “The Fed lied, the banks died.”
New concerns swirling around the US banking system have pushed bitcoin prices higher this week, mirroring a similar price boom for bitcoin, ethereum, BNB, XRP, polygon, dogecoin and solana earlier this year during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis.
“The revelation of First Republic Bank’s fragile business condition has driven bitcoin’s rally through $29,000, but the price rejected the psychological level of $30,000 on Wednesday and has struggled to break past that level since then,” Yuya Hasegawa, bitcoin and crypto market analyst at Toky0-based Bitbank, said in an email.
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