Stable value for Bitcoin and Ethereum price
For almost twenty days now, the price values of BTC (Bitcoin) and ETH (Ethereum) have been relatively stable.
Bitcoin’s price rose above $28,000 on March 19, and since then it has not fallen below $27,000 except for very few moments, and only slightly. It has tried three times to break above $29,000, but all these attempts have failed.
In other words, it has hovered in a decidedly narrow range between $27,000 and $29,000 for nearly twenty days.
It is worth noting that at the beginning of the year it was below $17,000, and that in late January it went above $23,000, then went above $25,000 on March 16, three days before it went over 28,000 dollars. It is therefore a rise that is not at all linear, interspersed with two declines, one to $21,500 on February 10, and another below $21,000 on March 10.
In other words, a rebound began on March 11 that took the price of BTC from under $21,000 to over $28,000 in just eight days. While during the next twenty days it moved very little.
A very similar argument can be made for Ethereum, whose market cap has now hovered around $1,800 since March 18th. However, for the last couple of good days, the price of ETH has been trying to get back above $1,900, which is a level it had never approached in 2023 before April 4th.
As such, while in the first quarter of the year ETH followed BTC’s fluctuations quite closely, in recent days it seems to have moved independently, probably in anticipation of the Shanghai update scheduled for April 12. It is common for the price of ETH to rise before a major update like this, but then it often falls after the event.
Also, in this case, the update will unlock the more than 18 million ETH currently locked in stakes on the Beacon Chain.
Fear in the markets
Often relatively long periods of lateralization like this end up breaking suddenly, with strong movements either up or down.
The key moment can only be April 12, because should the price of ETH fall after the event, as it often does, this period of lateralization could end with a crash.
Also, it is possible that some of the 18 million ETH that will suddenly be unlocked could be withdrawn and sold, although it is not known how many, and this could add selling pressure to what already exists as a result of “sell news. “
But there is more.
In recent days, and especially since yesterday, fear has also spread in traditional markets due to fears of recession.
While there is no recession at this point, especially in the US, and there is no data to suggest a dip into recession anytime soon, instead there is data to suggest that by the end of the year, or within the next year, things can go downhill.
Above all, the problem is the very high interest rates, which may not only go down, but may even rise a little more.
The thing is, there was more economic data coming out yesterday regarding the US that indicates an economy that seems to be starting to suffer a bit. If that suffering was due to the very high interest rates, as they are expected to remain so for quite some time to come, it is very difficult to imagine how the economic data could improve in the coming months. If anything, they are expected to worsen.
As things stand, it seems unlikely that the Fed can really intervene to break this downward spiral by cutting interest rates, because that would mean disabling the fight against inflation, which is also still too high.
The price development of BTC and ETH
The price development of Bitcoin and Ethereum now depends closely on what happens in the global financial and money markets, and especially in the United States.
While expectations of the Shanghai update may continue to have an impact until April 12, the situation may change after that event, also due to the release of March inflation data in the US a few days later.
In a climate of fear such as the one that seems to be forming, a drop in prices seems likely, although it will most likely depend on the inflation figures that are released.
For example, inflation in the Eurozone almost collapsed in March, so it is not impossible to envisage a sharp decline in the US as well. However, there was already a sharp fall in the US in February, so it is also possible to imagine that there might not be another one in March.
If the number is indeed lower than expected, the Fed could ease its restrictive plans, perhaps not raising interest rates in May and perhaps starting to cut them at the end of the year. If, on the other hand, it should not be particularly low, the assumption circulating is two further 25-point interest rate increases, one in May and the other in June, with no reduction at the turn of the year. In the latter case, the market reaction may be negative.
