How Low Can Bitcoin Price Go?

How Low Can Bitcoin Price Go?

Bitcoin (BTC) has spent over a year in a downtrend since its $69,000 all-time high in November 2021.

The BTC price movement has seen investors lose up to 77%, but how much lower can BTC/USD really go?

Bitcoin traders and analysts have long agreed that 2022 is the year of the largest cryptocurrency’s latest bear market.

After coming from all-time highs to start the year around $46,000, BTC/USD has offered little relief and has since returned to levels not seen since November 2020, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms.

That has placed the pair in historic bear market bottom territory – having lost a maximum of around 77% since the last peak, Bitcoin may have little room left to fall.

This time, however, could be different. Cointelegraph takes a look at what some of the most popular crypto market commentators think when it comes to where Bitcoin will bottom out.

CryptoBullet: “Comfortable buy” around $16,000

A well-known personality on social media adheres to a theory from earlier in 2022 – and it’s about one particular chain value.

For CryptoBullet, Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) continues to provide an important insight into macro BTC price bottoms.

CVDD essentially counts how many “headled” days a coin has accumulated when it moves to a new wallet. It is expressed as a ratio of the total age of the market, divided by 6 million, which analytics resource Woobull explains is a “calibration factor.”

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Looking back in time, CVDD has served as a significant line in the sand, and if this time is no different, BTC/USD may already provide buyers with the best possible profit opportunity.

According to Woobull, CVDD is currently around $15,900.

“I feel comfortable buying Bitcoin here at CVDD,” CryptoBullet told Twitter Followers November 26.

“Can it go lower? Of course it can. If another crypto company goes bankrupt or something like that, $BTC will fall below CVDD, but not by much. The main part of the downtrend is over.”

Bitcoin Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) Annotated Chart. Source: CryptoBullet/Twitter

Filbfilb: $6,500 as “worst case scenario”

An old hand in the crypto market keeps reassessing how badly the bears might bite this time.

Filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite Decentrader, recently told Cointelegraph that BTC/USD could see $10,000 around the new year if macro conditions worsen.

However, that was before the FTX debacle, and the resulting fuel added to the bear market fire has caused him to reconsider.

In a live stream together with fellow co-founder, Philip Swift, Filbfilb thus outlined areas of strong bid support as potential bottoms.

However, these vary – a large “ladder” of bids is just below the spot price and focuses on $12,000-$14,000. At the same time, the ultimate support can come as low as $6,000.

Filbfilb additionally noted that a Black Swan event such as further crypto busts could trigger a spike through the upper support zone, opening the potential for $10,000 or lower next.

However, a trip to the $6,000 zone is “unlikely” under current circumstances, he advised.

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BTC/USD 1-week candlestick chart (bitstamp) with liquidity heatmap data. Source: TradingView

Many are looking at the $14,000 prize

Filbfilb’s upper band of bid support on exchange order books is a popular target for a growing number of commentators.

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As Cointelegraph reported, $14,000 is now a significant spot on the radar, and entries around there are already being planned.

This area will also bring BTC/USD losses vs. all-time highs in line with previous bear markets.

BTC/USD drawdown vs. all-time highs chart. Source: Glassnode

Not only that, but $13,900 constitutes a significant support line on weekly time frames, notes trader and analyst Rekt Capital, one that has been untested since the second half of 2020.

BTC/USD Annotated Chart. Source: Rekt Capital/Twitter

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed herein are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.