Crypto volatility is rising, but the long-term outlook remains positive

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(Kitco News) – Cryptos continued to consolidate in trade on Thursday as traders look to end the first quarter on a high amid a backdrop of de-dollarization and banking woes.

US stocks started the day strongly before a mid-day decline threatened to push prices into the negative. Bulls managed to regain momentum in the afternoon, leading to a positive finish for the S&P, Dow and Nasdaq, which closed up 0.57%, 0.43% and 0.73% respectively.

Data from TradingView shows that Bitcoin (BTC) rose above $29,000 in early trading hours, but quickly reversed course and hit a low of $27,812 in afternoon trade before being bid back above support at $28,100.

BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The early morning rally for BTC resulted in a new contract high or Bitcoin futures in April, according to Kitco senior technical analyst Jim Wyckoff.

“Bitcoin bulls have the solid overall technical advantage in the near term amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart,” he said, adding, “The trend is the bull’s friend and more upside is likely.”

Long-term outlook

A macro look at where Bitcoin could find its next major resistance was offered by cryptoanalyst Mustache, who posted the following chart highlighting the importance of the 1-year moving average, suggesting a sharp pullback once BTC reaches $45,000.

#Bitcoin🎯

Most of you would probably like to know where $BTC Will make a big stop next time.

If we look at the history, the 1 Year MA x2 line became very interesting for a bigger target.

This line is currently around $45,000 dollars.$BTC is far from finished imo. pic.twitter.com/BbKClTEKgY

— 𝕄𝕕𝕣𝕚𝕚𝕒𝕒𝕒𝕚𝕖𝕖 🧲 (@el_crypto_prof) 30 March 2023

Meanwhile, a look at the weekly chart shows that Bitcoin has actually been in a long-term bull market since 2019, with the next wave having the potential to see the top crypto surpass $100,000 before the end of 2023, according to technical analyst Gert ban Lagen.

$BTC [1W]: BullMarket since 2019

I – Impulse, accumulation
II – Correction, Shake-out
III – Impulse, Momentum
IV – Correction, Bear Catcher
V – Impulse blow-off

Goal Zone V:
1.272-1.618 extension of III-IV and ATH-IV

Invalidation: $13,800 @ I#Bitcoin #BTC #Oxemarked pic.twitter.com/v45jJ7oUb7

— Gert van Lagen (@GertvanLagen) 30 March 2023

And Elliot Wave International noticed an interesting correlation between Bitcoin and inflation that shows BTC can actually serve as a leading indicator of inflation. With the price of BTC rising rapidly in 2023, this could signal that another wave of higher inflation may soon be upon us.

An interesting idea has gained traction recently – namely that #inflation is “bad” for #Bitcoin. The arguments for this correlation may sound reasonable – until you plot both inflation and Bitcoin’s price on a chart. check out pic.twitter.com/ZIbz8ocNdY

— Elliott Wave International (@elliottwaveintl) March 29, 2023

Lack of momentum in the altcoin market

It was a general downtrend for the altcoin market apart from a trio of double-digit gains as traders continue to take profits and reposition themselves ahead of the next run.

Daily performance in the cryptocurrency market. Source: Coin360

Arbitrum (ARB) and Injective (INJ) led the field with gains of 12.9%, while decentralized exchange aggregator 1inch Network (1INCH) saw its token price increase by 10.54%.

The total cryptocurrency market cap is now $1.17 trillion, and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 46.3%.