Bitcoin’s latest prediction-turned-come-true could be an investor’s nightmare because…

by James · October 15, 2022

Bitcoins [BTC] a near 5% recovery on October 14 may not be the icing on the cake needed for a bullish revival. According to BaroVirtual, a CryptoQuant analyst, such events occur in a full-fledged bear market indicated a catastrophic outcome.

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Here is AMBCryptos Bitcoin price prediction for 2022-2023

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In its latest analysis, BaroVirtual pointed out that the BTC close/low ratio signaled that the decline would eventually result in a price correction.

Source: BaroVirtual at CryptoQuant

Prophecy to reality?

Interestingly, the analyst’s projection seemed quick to come to life. This was because it didn’t take long for Bitcoin to succumb to bids from bears. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $19,177 – down 2.74% in the last 24 hours. However, it did not appear that the decline would end at 2% to 3%.

Based on the four-hour chart, BTC sellers had more advantage over the strength of the buyers. The Directional Movement Index (DMI) showed that the positive part (green), which reflected buyer advantage, was 16.77.

In contrast, the negative DMI (red) favored the sellers over the positive at 27.54. While bulls may have hoped that the directional strength was not strong enough, the Average Directional Index (ADX) showed otherwise. With the ADX (yellow) at 32.23, it was almost inevitable that BTC’s bearish momentum could last a while before any bullish signs appeared.

Hence defense zone which BTC bulls may have expected a run from may not be near-term.

Source: TradingView

More so, BTC traders also seemed to reduce centralized trading activities recently. According to the on-chain data intelligence platform, Glassnode, the number of exchange deposits had reached new lows, with the most recent being 1,836,483 within two years.

📉 #Bitcoin $BTC The number of exchange deposits (7d MA) just hit a 2-year low of 1,836,482

The previous 2-year low of 1,837.155 was observed on October 13, 2022

See calculation: pic.twitter.com/Bnro0E7UJb

— glassnode alerts (@glassnodealerts) 15 October 2022

Because of this, it was less likely that investors would have taken profits. For others, it might mean it was time to evaluate their BTC portfolio.

What else is going on?

Per chain measurements, BTC traders did not follow the reduced exchange activities like Glassnode revealed that futures open interest was at an excellent pace. As of October 14, BTC futures open interest across all exchanges was around $12.15 billion.

The current level was similar to what it has been since September 15. The implication was that traders were looking to profit from the futures market since the BTC spot was less likely to yield significant gains.

Source: Glassnode

Furthermore, exchange inflows and outflows showed no clear signs that bulls would rejoice this October. In accordance Sentimentthe exchange’s inflow and outflow was a close call at 5189 and 6579 respectively.

So while there has been some selling pressure, there has also been buying momentum to match. Therefore, it was unclear who would win the Bitcoin momentum battle.