Bitcoin’s assessment of the last 365 days reveals this about BTC’s future

by James · September 24, 2022

Data from blockchain analytics platform, Sentiment revealed that Bitcoin [BTC]’s Market-Value-to-Realized-Value (MVRV) was at -43. This was close to the lowest position the metric has managed before a rebound. Historically, the royal coin’s lowest was a negative value of -53 in December 2018.

According to Santiment, a consistent decline in price and market cap in 2021 led to a similar drop in active traders trading BTC. As a result, the index of active BTC traders fell by an average of 43% since last September.

📉 #Bitcoin is still -72% as of November 2021 #alltimehigh. With such a drop in market cap, active traders who have traded in the past year are down an average of -43%. Historically, MVRV has not fallen much further than this before a rebound. pic.twitter.com/H1SEldHib2

— Santiment (@santimentfeed) 23 September 2022

More departures on the chain

At press time, BTC was trading at $19,137.16. According to data from CoinMarketCap, the price position represented a 72% drop from the high of $68,789.63 recorded 10 months ago.

However, in 2021, the hash rate of the Bitcoin network grew steadily. According to data from Messari, this stood at 225 MH/s at press time, having increased by over 60% in the past 365 days. In addition, data from the same source showed that the average difficulty on the network was at an all-time high of 32.05T.

Despite these highs, the revenue paid to BTC miners per hash per second on the network dropped sharply over the past year. According to Messari, the number fell by 75%.

Source: Messari

Within the one-year period under investigation, the royal coin recorded a difference in coin holding behavior among the major stakeholders in the BTC network. According to data from Sentimentholders of 1,000 to 10,000 BTC fell by 2% in the past year.

The current number for this category of whales was 2025 addresses. This decline can thus be attributed to the steady decline in the price of BTC since the November 2021 ATH. However, holders of 10,000 to 100,000 BTC and 100,000 to 1,000,000 BTC have been more resistant.

Their numbers increased by 15% and 66% respectively in the last 365 days.

Source: Sentiment

Furthermore, data from Santiment also revealed dormancy on the BTC network since the November 10 ATH. A look at the asset’s average dollar invested age (MDIA) confirmed this. It has risen steadily over the past year, which indicates stagnation on the network. This further resulted in a gradual decline in the price of the royal coin.

Source: Sentiment

Through the thick of the current bear market, the price of BTC has fallen by over 55% since January. With the tightening economic situation amid a general downturn in the broader financial markets, BTC owners have resorted to selling their holdings at a loss to save their investments.

As a result, the asset’s Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) spent more than half of the year below the central 1 level, data from Glass node knew. This was an indication that the year so far has been significantly characterized by panic selling of BTC.