Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Creator Buying the Dip, Is the Price Model Still Valid?
Popular Bitcoin chart analyst and investor ‘PlanB’ continues to buy the valley and highlights how many times the asset has been declared ‘dead’.
On October 3, the analyst told his 1.8 million Twitter followers that he was still buying BTC with his latest purchase at around the $20,000 level.
His first purchase was in 2015 when BTC had fallen to around $400, and then again during the 2018 bear market when it fell to around $4000. The asset is currently trading at similarly weak levels, down 72% from its all-time high.
BTC has been declared “dead” on these three occasions and as many as 463 times since its inception according to the 99Bitcoins obituary page.
Is the S2F model still valid?
‘PlanB’ has had its share of criticism (and continues to) as the price prediction model appeared to be invalid this year. BTC prices did not rise to the average cycle high of $100,000 predicted in late 2021, or the end of the year at $135,000 when he predicted at the time.
However, the model appears to be intact when considering the upper and lower bounds or range of deviation from the forecast price for the current time in the cycle, which also appears to be lengthening.
With the end of September at $19,425, BTC is trading about 75% below its projected price for this cycle. It was also observed that Bitcoin has never closed a monthly candle below its previous all-time high in its history.
It is a valid buy point for those who are convinced that the S2F is still valid and the bearish downtrend will slowly start to reverse in 2023 sometime in the period until the next halving.
The asset is also trading below a number of long-term technical indicators such as the 200-week moving average of $23,470 and the realized price of $21,253 according to Woo Charts.
Bitcoin drops below $19,000 again
Major macroeconomic concerns continue to fuel the bears in both traditional financial and crypto markets. BTC took a sharp drop below $19,000 during the Monday morning trading session, but has since recovered to $19,194 at press time, according to CoinGecko.
The asset remains in tight consolidation where it has been for the past three weeks, failing to make any headway above $20,000, but still holding support at the mid-$18,000 level several times.
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