Analysts Who Reached End of Crypto Bull Market Abruptly Change Attitude on Bitcoin, Say New BTC Trend Coming
The crypto analyst who accurately called the end of the crypto bull market last year is predicting a trend change for Bitcoin (BTC) after nearly a year of bearish price action.
The pseudonymous analyst known in the industry as Pentoshi says his 612,300 Twitter followers that the macro landscape has changed drastically since Bitcoin hit its all-time high in November 2021.
Pentoshi says the Federal Reserve’s terminal rate, or the expected endpoint of interest rate hikes, has fluctuated wildly over the past year, indicating a possible change in the macro backdrop.
“With terminal rates at 4.6%, I think you can at least say that the rate part has finally priced in after going from 0% to 4.6%. It’s hard to expect more upside there, and thus the risk go over to the bottom.
I kept my entire macro bearish thesis until BTC took out the lows on September 9th. Then I switched to more neutral and wanted to offer value. The CPI is also potentially at maximum speed as well. It’s just hard for me to keep such a strong bearish bias for now.”
Earlier this month, the Fed expressed its intention to continue raising interest rates until it reaches 4.6% in 2023. At the time of writing, the federal funds rate hovers between 3% and 3.25%.
With interest rates nearing the Fed’s cutoff point, Pentoshi believes Bitcoin is headed for a short-term relief rally. Following the surge, the cryptoanalyst predicts a final capitulation phase that will set the stage for Bitcoin’s transition into an extended sideways trend.
“If I had to say worst case scenario, I’d put it at $12,000-$14,000 for BTC. At $18,7000 now and near the June low. Don’t expect a bull market anytime soon either. More of a true sideways market to come. As below. “
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is changing hands for $18,811, flat on the day.
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