Ethereum is ahead of Bitcoin this rally – but ETH price still risks 20% crash against BTC
Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), recorded better gains than Bitcoin (BTC) over the past 24 hours despite the latter eventually rising above the key $20,000 level.
Ether beats Bitcoin in risk-on rally
On the daily chart, Ether jumped about 14% to reach its weekly high of $1,554 (data from Binance) on October 26. Bitcoin underwent a similar rally, but its week-to-date gain is only 6% by comparison.
The ETH/BTC pair gained around 8%, climbing as high as 0.075 BTC on October 26.
The boom in the top crypto assets has been in sync with the US stock market’s winning streak since October 24. It also came on the back of a weaker US dollar index, which has typically traded inversely to the crypto market since March 2020.
Bear fractal alarm
ETH/BTC’s recent price rally has taken it to a range that preceded a 35% correction in the April-May 2022 session (marked as “R1” in the chart below) and was instrumental in limiting the upside outlook in August-September 2022 (marked as “R3” in the diagram below).
The range coincides with the range defined by ETH/BTC’s 0.236-0.382 Fib lines, or 0.072 BTC-0.077 BTC. Therefore, the pair may stabilize within the range, followed by a correction towards the 0.068 BTC–0.064 BTC range, its close support levels.
Related: Ethereum’s Merger Won’t Stop Price From Falling
Meanwhile, a decisive break below the 0.068 BTC-0.064 BTC range could expose Ether to fall towards its multi-month rising trendline, which served as a solid bounce back after the April-May 2022 downtrend.
$ETHBTC | Update
The outlook after closing the pair at the top.
You can have a nice projection by analyzing RTed tweets (for education).With mLTF bearish indications from the red box, the price may reach the lows of the green box.
The red lines are another resistance zone. pic.twitter.com/rKnxWsCS3E
— Efloud (@EfloudTheSurfer) 26 October 2022
That puts ETH/BTC’s primary downside target at around 0.059 BTC in Q4 2022, down 20% from current price levels.
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