Bitcoin: Assessing the good, bad and ugly as BTC ‘marches’ into April

• Bitcoin’s organic demand has increased since spot trading surpassed perpetual trading activity.
• The US operation choke 2.0 may affect April BTC performance.

The crypto market, led by the quarter revival Bitcoin [BTC], had a march full of ups and downs between cynical and optimistic views. Nevertheless, the royal coin can end the month with a 30-day gain of 21.49%. However, there has been some development around the market driven by macroeconomic factors and cycle reversal.

How much is 1,10,100 BTCs worth today?

As such is latest Capriole newslettercompiled by Charles Edwards, touched on this aspect.

Bumps on the road to glory

According to the digital asset hedge fund, BTC’s price action has largely been driven by organic demand. This was because the eternal dominance has been in free fall for quite some time.

The calculation describes the established relationship between derivatives trading and spot positions. And with the eternal dominance down, that meant spot drove appreciation, and early bull market stages can be here.

Source: Capriole

However, it is important to admit that the ecosystem struggled with regulatory issues and traditional financial issues.

But Bitcoin seemed to have been able to withstand the heat. In fact, these challenges helped increase the short-to-long-term realized value (SLRV) band. This meant that short-term market activity exceeded the long-term. In Capriole’s words,

“In Q4 2022, bonds bottomed out at levels comparable to the 2018 lows, and have since gone exponential into Q1 2023. This is another clear sign of a macro shift in Bitcoin adoption.”

Source: Glassnode

Bitcoin: Crunches, Costs and Revival

Furthermore, the report noted that the current liquidity crisis was only one of two. And the Bitcoin reaction to the former may be similar to the latter part, especially with regulators and institutions from the United States easing their pursuit of the digital asset industry.

Another metric that is considered to have favored Bitcoin is the cost of production. For most of 2022, investments aimed at Bitcoin production were at extreme levels.

With the end of Q1 here, it means that the high costs have outpaced the BTC trading price for more than 365 days. Although this is bad for minersit serves as confirmation of the coin’s undervalued condition.

Source: Capriole

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The quantitative Bitcoin algorithm provider believed that the US operation targeting legitimate crypto firms to restore the banks’ dignity could derail BTC’s growth in April. However, the coin has been shown to detach itself from macroeconomic factors recently. So there is a chance that it will avoid these potential sanctions.

Finally, April’s potential to replicate March’s results looks unclear. But the current situation is consistent with a recovery trend and potential adoption increase.